Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Vladimir Putin Concerning Ukraine

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Donald Trump and Putin's planned negotiations on the almost four-year conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Reports of an impending American-Russian leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Budapest - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," President Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a waste of time, so I will observe what happens."
  • Donald Trump says he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky leaves Washington without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in Trump's attempts to broker an end to hostilities in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the US president after he orchestrated a truce and prisoner exchange agreement in the Palestinian territory.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he said.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing several years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the key to unlocking a agreement was Israel's decision to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided Trump bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter America's position on the lawfulness of Jewish communities in the West Bank and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, in fact, is better regarded among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.

Add in Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has threatened to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the global economy and further escalate the war.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, halting briefly information exchange with Ukraine and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of worried European partners who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

The president loves to tout his skill to sit down and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Putin agreed to a summit in the US state at the time when it appeared likely that the president would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently delayed.

Last week, as news emerged that the White House was seriously contemplating shipping long-range missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the Russian leader phoned Trump who then touted the potential summit in Hungary.

The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"As soon as the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a matter of days, the president has shifted from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has rejected.

During his election campaign last year, Trump vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties wants, or is able to, cease hostilities.

Kevin Olson
Kevin Olson

A passionate traveler and storyteller, Elara shares insights from her global adventures to inspire others.

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