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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV stands little chance of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election achieved a shock first-place finish and formed a four-party all-conservative government that lasted barely a year, is now marginally ahead in surveys and is projected to win between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, PVV's support has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

At the end of a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant losses.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the proportional Dutch system, gaining just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups participating in the vote – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations may require several months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is likely to be a broad-based coalition led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, opened at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before assuming power.